UBS: These are the companies most at risk from President Trump's trade war

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  • UBS rounded up the most at-risk companies in every industry with regards to President Donald Trump’s ongoing trade war with China, Europe, and others.
  • Analysts warn these companies could see their earnings per share hit with double that of the market average.

President Trump’s trade war is showing no signs of stopping, and it’s already taken a toll on markets.

In the face of further escalation, UBS asked its equities analysts in each sector to identify the three companies under their coverage that were most at risk if the trade war if it continued.

“Given tariffs are at the product level, it is important to understand how firms may react as these decisions will impact prices, investment, and supply chains, which will in turn reverberate through the economy,” said the team of analysts lead by Keith Parker, the bank’s US chief equity strategist.

The 32 stocks listed by the bank have already seen a 4.5% underperformance compared to the benchmark S&P 500 index. The losses could worsen as companies are forced to either pass on increased costs to consumers or shoulder the extra burden, lowering margins.

Here’s what the team asked company analysts in order to come up with the list:

  • What percentage of your companies’ cost base would be impacted?
  • Would they pass on increases/decreases in costs to clients, and by how much?
  • How much would they decrease/increase capex?
  • Would firms adjust supply chains?
  • Use substitute goods? Relocate production?
  • What’s priced in?

“Companies/industries most affected could see an EPS hit 2x+ larger than the S&P overall, suggesting trade escalation is not priced,” UBS warned.

Here’s their list of most at-risk names:

Rockwell Automation

Ticker: ROK

Industry: Electrical equipment and multi-industry

Year-to-date performance: -10.4%

“Exposure to global capacity build-out, autos,” fueled the risk to Rockwell, UBS said. 

SPX Flow

Ticker: FLOW

Industry: Electrical equipment and multi-industry

Year-to-date performance: 0.0%. 

UBS cites “higher cyclicality,international exposure, and leverage” as to why SPX may be more at-risk. 

Deere & Co. (John Deere)

Ticker: DE

Industry: US machinery

Year-to-date performance: -10.9%

“Ag machinery companies could be negatively impacted in the near term by falling soybean prices and weaker demand if Chinese imports decline,” UBS warned in the report. “They could also be negatively impacted by weaker hog exports.”

See the rest of the story at Business Insider

Read the full article from it’s original source: http://uk.businessinsider.com/stocks-most-at-risk-from-president-trump-trade-war-ubs-2018-8

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